Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 178.313018 209.727952 246.594081 293.455024 352.012180 423.540564 5.187240e+02
2025-11-02 138.303803 175.948341 224.833160 294.342845 392.962129 531.608917 7.483859e+02
2025-11-09 112.975287 151.584279 205.358025 288.231952 417.543953 620.560285 9.835535e+02
2025-11-16 95.941693 134.032436 190.019826 281.982537 437.071838 704.477176 1.243342e+03
2025-11-23 83.347516 120.266395 176.952542 275.114846 451.984684 783.151483 1.528073e+03
2025-11-30 78.863673 117.770168 180.371469 295.238597 518.196791 977.633188 2.159087e+03
2025-12-07 72.219428 110.736949 175.011237 298.494140 553.136098 1121.859035 2.767477e+03
2025-12-14 67.301864 105.781584 172.239101 305.678527 597.708896 1305.278964 3.625070e+03
2025-12-21 62.034017 99.511970 166.116285 304.929225 624.688341 1457.429379 4.522844e+03
2025-12-28 60.300519 99.161618 170.686810 326.839471 710.768293 1809.902590 6.557665e+03
2026-01-04 58.053736 97.570140 172.593681 343.377472 789.271940 2186.321140 9.280940e+03
2026-01-11 55.617176 95.314990 172.820484 356.135878 862.386284 2592.865346 1.296758e+04
2026-01-18 52.688378 91.942007 170.607266 363.529223 925.998949 3023.037516 1.801884e+04
2026-01-25 49.579070 87.892489 166.455973 365.445660 974.872134 3439.254025 2.445156e+04
2026-02-01 46.054322 82.651986 159.055715 357.572830 990.065970 3725.029755 3.093101e+04
2026-02-08 42.893895 77.849512 152.038808 349.417562 1002.115658 4012.767578 3.905767e+04
2026-02-15 40.013115 73.357397 145.187520 340.447746 1008.658645 4284.398834 4.888590e+04
2026-02-22 39.654917 74.104356 150.450331 366.786890 1158.722735 5552.392575 9.029121e+04
2026-03-01 37.963580 71.833506 148.304777 371.059987 1224.623625 6391.696324 1.374074e+05
2026-03-08 36.686181 70.343072 147.860446 380.501216 1317.906709 7584.324112 2.321759e+05
2026-03-15 34.968398 67.725337 144.319628 379.515804 1365.131989 8502.162306 3.577870e+05
2026-03-22 34.787959 68.541689 149.546435 408.399911 1571.367315 11333.864052 9.504018e+05
2026-03-29 34.236357 68.452940 152.430001 430.294885 1758.957164 14579.105889 2.769414e+06